Meta (META) Earnings Wednesday: Ads, Reels, AI Spend, Reality Labs
Jan 26, 2026
By:Gus Downing
Meta is set to report their Q4 FY2025 earnings on Wednesday, January 28, after market close
Analyst consensus expectations call for an earnings per share (EPS) of $8.21 on revenue of $58.4 billion
META is currently up 1.5% so far in 2026, sliding for the first three weeks of the year before a sharp recovery in the last week
From Peaks to Plan: Meta’s Current Base
2025 was a very volatile year for META, touching lows of $480 during the Liberation Day selloff and highs of $796 just four months later in mid-August. Ultimately, the stock logged a 13.7% gain in the 2025 calendar year – momentum which management hopes to carry into 2026.
In their last earnings report for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year, ad momentum stayed strong, with revenue rising 26% year-over-year (YoY), but shares took a slight decline after leadership noted that spending on AI infrastructure would increase in future quarters.
Management has stood by that guidance, explicitly stating on multiple occasions that capital expenditures and expenses will increase into the 2026 fiscal year to support AI data centers and model training.
Key Swing Factors on This Call
Ad Momentum vs. Spend Discipline
Meta’s bread and butter for years has been advertising revenue, and they still count on it as a cash cow today, especially as AI spend ramps up. Commentary on Reels monetization progress, ad ROI and automation, or pacing into Q1 has the propensity to move shares.
Engagement Pulse Across the Family of Apps
Per the most recent numbers, Meta boasts over 3.5 billion daily active users across their family of apps (Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp chief among them). Any updates on daily or monthly average users, time users are spending on Meta apps, and creator or feed changes will frame ad inventory and pricing headed into the new year.
AI Capex Curve: Timing and Scale
As far as capital expenditure, investors are focused primarily on the spending curve; the timing of 2026 expenditures, the speed of data center buildouts, and how quickly AI tooling can be converted into revenue. Previously issued guidance put 2025 capital expenditure at $37-40 billion, with a target of $35-50 billion in 2026. Any revisions to that guidance or more specific ranges could have a tangible impact on share price.
Headsets, Glasses, and the Ad Flywheel
Investors will be looking at Reality Labs operational expenditure with great scrutiny, along with unit production and engagement numbers on Meta’s devices (like Ray-Ban Meta Glasses and the Meta Quest VR headset). If management happens to give and intel on how AR glasses and AI wearables tie back into the core ads ecosystem, that would also carry some weight.
Policy, Privacy, and FX Headwinds
As it pertains to forward guidance, investors will want to hear about regulatory hurdles in Europe, which have plagued Meta in recent years. And brand-safety headlines or foreign exchange headwinds could also swing the tone of leadership’s guidance, even if the company’s fundamentals remain intact.
Laying the Groundwork for 2026
Monetization Clock: 12–18 Month View
With AI spending expected to increase into 2026, investors will want some kind of evidence that ad revenue, creator tools, and AI are able to offset the increased expenses over the next 12-18 months. If Meta just says that they are going to ramp up spending and keep everything else business as usual, that would likely work as a bearish factor.
Product Signals Analysts Can Model
Currently, it’s difficult for analysts to properly model engagement and ad yield in the 2026 calendar year due to murky waters surrounding the product roadmap. More detail on advanced ranking, AI content experiences, and assistant features across apps would help a great deal, and is expected to come on this call.
Capital Returns and Margin Guardrails
Lastly, with higher spending coming, investors have begun asking questions about stock buybacks relative to free cash flow and margin guardrails. Commentary from management in recent quarters set the context for balancing both; any changes could have an impact on capital returns, and, in turn, share price, down the line.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
About Us
Careers
Legal Info
Privacy Policy
Terms of Use
Newsroom
FAQ
Glossary
Help Center
Contact Us
Twitter
Instagram
Facebook
LinkedIn
tastytrade
tastycrypto
Store
Connect from anywhere!
Newsletters
News & Insights
On Demand
YouTube
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastyfx, LLC (“tastyfx”) is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) registered Retail Foreign Exchange Dealer (RFED) and Introducing Broker (IB) and Forex Dealer Member (FDM) of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) (NFA ID 0509630). Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances as you may lose more than you invest.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 – 2026 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.
Your privacy choices
